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Cisco visual networking index forecast

according to the latest Cisco visual networking index (VNI) complete forecast, in the next five years (2016, 2021), the global all digital transformation will continue to have an important impact on IP network demand. The main data include that Internet users will increase from 3.3 billion to 4.6 billion (accounting for 58% of the global population) [1]; Personal equipment and machine to machine (M2M) connection will be more widely used, and its number will increase from 17.1 billion in 2016 to 27.1 billion in 2021; The average broadband speed will increase significantly from 27.5 Mbps to 53.0 Mbps; Video viewing volume will also increase, and its proportion in the total IP traffic will increase from 73% to 82%. During the forecast period of the report, the global IP traffic is expected to triple, from 1.2 ZB in 2016 to 3.3 ZB in 2021

in the 12 years since Cisco first released the forecast, the number of M2M connections supporting IOT applications will account for more than 50% of the total 27.1 billion devices and connections for the first time, and the traffic generated will account for 5% of the global IP traffic by 2021. The IOT innovation in the Internet of home, Internet of medical care, smart car/transportation and many next-generation M2M services will promote this growth of up to 2.4 times, from 5.8 billion in 2016 to 13.7 billion in 2021. With the rise of interconnected applications including health monitors, drug distributors and first responder connections, the medical vertical market will become the fastest-growing industry market (with a CAGR of 30%). "Liancheng automobile and Liancheng application" said mark Saurin, vice president of Asia Pacific business of Dow packaging and special plastics business department, whose growth rate was the second (compound annual growth rate of 29%)

video will still be the main force driving the growth of IP traffic and overall Internet traffic, accounting for 80% of the total Internet traffic by 2021, a significant increase compared with 67% in 2016. Globally, Internet video users (excluding mobile end users) will grow from 1.4 billion in 2016 to nearly 1.9 billion in 2021. By 2021, the global Internet video viewing duration will reach 3trillion minutes per month, which is equivalent to 5million years of video viewing per month, or about 1million minutes of video viewing per second

by 2021, emerging media such as Internet video live broadcast will achieve a 15 fold growth, contributing 13% of Internet video traffic, which means that more TV live broadcast and personal live broadcast applications will emerge in social networks. While live video is reshaping today's entertainment model, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are also growing. By 2021, vr/ar traffic will increase 20 times, accounting for 1% of global entertainment traffic

Yvette kanouff, senior vice president of Cisco global and general manager of the operator business unit, said: the global all digital transformation continues to heat up, affecting billions of enterprises and consumers. Network and security will become the key to the future development of the Internet. Working with operators to promote network innovation is crucial for Cisco to better meet the needs of its customers and bring reliable, safe and high-quality networking experience to customers

2017 Cisco visual network index complete forecast key content and important data

1 From 2016 to 2021, the global IP traffic will triple

by 2021, the global IP traffic is expected to increase from 96 EB per month in 2016 to 278 EB per month, and the annual global IP traffic is expected to reach 3.3 ZB

the Internet traffic in peak hours will grow faster than that in normal hours. From 2016 to 2021, the Internet traffic during peak hours will increase by 4.6 times (with a CAGR of 35%) and reach 4.3 PBPs by 2021. In contrast, the interconnection traffic in the general period of the same time period will increase by 3.2 times (the compound annual growth rate is 26%), and will reach 717 TBPs by 2021

2. By 2021, the traffic generated by Wi Fi and mobile connected devices will account for 73% of the Internet traffic

2021 Internet access percentage - wi fi:53%; Honeycomb: 20%; Fixed: 27%

2016 Internet access percentage - wi fi:52%; Honeycomb: 10%; Fixed: 38%

3 Globally, from 2016 to 2021, the total number of public Wi Fi hotspots (including homespots) will increase sixfold, from 94million in 2016 to 541.6 million in 2021

the global total number of Wi Fi homespots will increase from 85million in 2016 to 526.2 million in 2021

countries with the leading number of hot spots: China (170million by 2021), the United States (86million by 2021), Japan (33million by 2021), and France (30million by 2021)

4. By 2021, more than half (56%) of the connected flat panel TVs will be 4K TVs, and the safety requirements for the connection of 4K electric rope clamps should comply with gb5967 (2) 006 steel wire rope clamps, which is considered to account for only 15% of the connected flat panel TVs in 2016

the installed/in use 4K TVs will increase from 85million in 2016 to 663million in 2021

5. The traffic of thread cutting families is 86% higher than that of ordinary interconnected families

thread cutting family is a new trend. In this trend, traditional and subscription TV viewing modes are being replaced by other video viewing modes provided through fixed and mobile Internet connections, such as and mobile video

the global thread cutting families generated 117 GB of traffic per month in 2017, which was significantly higher than that of general interconnected families, which generated 63 GB of traffic per month

6. End user interconnection traffic is approaching the edge, and by 2021, more than one third of the traffic will bypass the core

globally, the Internet traffic transmitted between big cities will increase from 22% in 2016 to 35% in 2021

globally, the Internet traffic transmitted on the regional backbone (without touching the transnational backbone) will increase from 20% in 2016 to 23% in 2021

globally, the Internet traffic transmitted on the transnational backbone will drop from 58% in 2016 to 41% in 2021

7. Global enterprise sd-wan traffic

sd-wan traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44%, while traditional WAN traffic is only 5%

sd-wan will achieve a six fold growth in the forecast period, accounting for 25% of WAN traffic by 2021

8. The average DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack scale has grown steadily, close to 1.2 Gbps, which is enough to completely crash most enterprises

ddos events can use traffic from multiple IP sources to flood servers and network devices, thereby paralyzing the network

the scale of peak attacks has increased by 60% year-on-year. When it occurs, it will account for 18% of the total Internet traffic of a country

the average growth rate of DDoS attack scale reached 22%, which was basically the same as the 29% year-on-year growth rate of Internet in the same period

globally, the number of DDoS attacks increased by 172% in 2016. By 2021, the number of DDoS attacks will increase by 2.5 times to 3.1 million

details of regional IP traffic growth (2016-2021)

Asia Pacific: 107.7 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 26%, a 3.2-fold growth

North America: 85 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 20%, a 2.5-fold growth

Western Europe: 37.4 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 22%, a 2.7-fold growth

central Europe: 17.1 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 22%, 2.75 times growth

Latin America: 12.9 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 21%, 2.6 times growth

Middle East and Africa: 15.5 EB per month by 2021, with a CAGR of 42%, with a 5.8 times growth

Cisco visual network index research method

Cisco visual network index complete prediction () based on independent analysis and prediction and real network usage data. On this basis, Cisco has predicted the global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed description of the study methodology is included in the full report. In the course of 12 years' development, Cisco visual network index survey has become a highly respected measurement tool for Internet growth. Governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecom companies, technical experts, industry/commercial media and analysts all use this annual survey to help them make reasonable plans for the all digital future

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